MY OSCAR BALLOT: Who I Pick to Win at the 97th Annual Academy Awards on March 2, 2025

 MY OSCAR BALLOT: Who I Pick to Win at the 97th Annual Academy Awards on March 2, 2025

Here are my picks for who will win on Oscar night. These aren't necessarily who I'd vote for, just the ones I think will win. I've gone all SATs this year: reverting back to my initial gut instinct rather than over-thinking it or allowing myself to be swayed by the ten thousand articles about who is up and who is down and who has momentum. Here it goes. 

UPDATE: I got 15 out of 23, perhaps a record low for me. I couldn't be happier since it means Anora won, the first time my favorite movie of the year also won Best Picture since The Sting back in 1974. 

BEST PICTURE – Conclave NO (Anora) 

BEST DIRECTOR – Sean Baker, Anora YES 

BEST ACTOR – Timotheé Chalamet, A Complete Unknown NO (Adrien Brody for The Brutalist) 

BEST ACTRESS – Demi Moore, The Substance NO (Mikey Madison for Anora) 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain YES

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez YES 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Anora YES

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Conclave YES

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM – I'm Still Here YES 

BEST ANIMATED FILM – Flow YES

BEST DOCUMENTARY – Porcelain War NO (No Other Land) 

BEST EDITING – Conclave NO (Anora) 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – The Brutalist YES 

BEST SCORE – The Brutalist YES

BEST SONG – "El Mal" from The Six Triple Eight YES

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – Wicked YES 

BEST COSTUMES – Wicked YES 

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR – The Substance YES

BEST SOUND – A Complete Unknown  NO (Dune: Part Two) 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – Dune, Part 2 YES 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT  – Anuja NO (I'm Not A Robot)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT – Magic Candies NO (In The Shadow of the Cypress)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – The Only Girl in the Orchestra YES 

Some thoughts. 

BEST PICTURE -- I actually think Anora will win. But it's been more than 50 years since the Best Picture Oscar went to my favorite film of the year (The Sting, which came out in 1973). So I have trouble imagining Anora will win, despite dominating the guild awards. Oscar usually let's me down so I assume it will again this year. Of course, this means that if Anora wins Oscar will be letting me down in another way. 

NOTE: If you're interested, the only other times my favorite film of the year won Best Picture were: The Sound of Music (1965), Lawrence of Arabia (1962), All About Eve (1950), Casablanca (1943) and Sunrise, which won the Oscar for Best Unique and Artistic Picture at the very first Academy Awards. (Wings won Outstanding Picture; the Unique and Artistic Picture category was dropped before the second ceremony.) 

NOTE: Not only has the Academy Awards almost never named my favorite film of the year as Best Picture (it hasn't happened in 50+ years), it almost never picks my favorite movie out of the five or ten nominees!! Yes, when they only have 5 or so movies to choose from, they still almost never agree with me. Maybe the last time my favorite film among the nominees won Best Picture was Amadeus in 1984. So again, I have a LOT of trouble picturing a win for Anora. 

BEST ACTOR -- Again, personal bias. The safer bet is Adrien Brody since Best Actor almost never goes to the new kid. But Timothée Chalamet has two Best Picture nominees and is the star of both and ran a great campaign and damned if he didn't pull off doing his own singing while playing Bob Dylan! Plus, tht SNL hosting gig, which sounded like a train wreck of an idea to me, but worked great because he didn't try and "do" Bob Dylan when singing on the broadcast. So Chalamet is it. Muad'Dib! 

BEST ACTRESS -- CHANGED MY MIND! Demi Moore is the safe bet. But I have trouble imagining older voters sitting through that horror film. And I've been swayed by anecdotal stories in the trades about a groundswell for I'm Still Here and how "a lot" of people are watching it before casting their ballot. Momentum! It could just as easily be Mikey Madison. And yet...people don't have to actually watch a movie to vote. And Demi Moore is a survivor and enjoying a late career triumph and plenty of voters will respond to that, whether they've watched the movie or not. Plus, while the SAG win came after voting ended, her speeches have been great all awards season. So Moore it is. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY --  If Anora wins here, then maybe it will win Best Picture too. But this could also be where they reward Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. Though really, the screenplay is the worst thing about it. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY -- Since I'm picking Conclave to win Best Picture, I think it has to win screenplay too (and maybe Production Design). If A Complete Unknown wins here, maybe it will be the Best Picture spoiler. A Supporting Actor  or Supporting Actress and other tech awards too? Then it steamrolls to the top.  

BEST ANIMATED FILM -- I really like The Wild Robot and it got three nominations. But Flow also got a nomination for Best International Film and it's just so good, I think they'll give it this. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM -- Emilia Pérez still seems the smart bet before all the craziness. But I'm Still Here is also up for Best Picture and Flow is also up for Best Animated Film. It's a rare case where three of the five films are up for other awards like that. So it's anybody's guess. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY -- Probably a two-way race between No Other Land  and Porcelain War. Both are good but Porcelain War is more uplifting which is why I chose it. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN/BEST COSTUMES -- I really wanted to go with Nosferatu here. But Wicked wins by a nose for having the MOST Production Design and Costume Design. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS -- I was amazed at how well Better Man succeeded as a musical bio-pic with its crazy, absurd idea: having singer Robbie Williams portrayed as a monkey. (Because fame makes him feel like a monkey in a zoo being stared at everywhere he goes.) It works a charm and while we're all blasé about motion capture now, it's a terrific performance (thanks to the actors) and the work is so seamless you really don't think about it after a while. Yeah, he's a monkey, but you're just watching the movie; the fact that he's a monkey subtly (!) informs every scene and makes the whole movie work. But other than the people who work in special effects, I'm literally the only person I know who saw the movie. So the accomplished work on Dune: Part Two it is. Muad'Dib!

BEST SONG -- My heart says Diane Warren will finally win. But Emilia Pérez had so many nominations and has to win more than Best Supporting Actress and "El Mal" seems to be the consensus choice of everyone else, so I'm ignoring my gut this time out. 

SHORTS -- This is where hopefully I can make up ground for my wrong guesses higher up. In Live Action, four are strong entries. But Anuja is about two young girls working in a sweatshop in India and ends on an indecisive note. Bad! However, we find out that the lead actor was herself a street kid in India, just like the character, and then during the end credits we learn about the charity helping street kids and watch her attend a screening of the short with other street kids and they're all laughing and engrossed and cheering it on and suddenly you're feeling happy and inspired and I thought, "Winner!" In Doc Shorts, three are serious and two are more positive and uplifting. Bill Morrison's Incident is the best, but it doesn't knock you over with outrage at the end as it might have. And The Only Girl in the Orchestra is about a classical musician retiring after a long career and we see her teaching students, mentoring people and generally being a mensch while others celebrate her path-breaking career. Catnip for Oscar voters, I think, even though my friend thought it dragged towards the end. Finally, two Animated Shorts stood out: Magic Candies and Yuck! It's more fun to say "yuck" and tick that off on a ballot. But I'm going with Magic Candies which is a titch better and doesn't have this weird glowing lip thing that Yuck! used when showing people wanted to kiss. It's amusing, but looks sort of dumb too. So Magic Candies it is. 

NOTE: Oscar trivia time. Chalamet really stands out for being the undisputed lead in two films nominated for Best Picture, the first person to do this in almost 60 years. The last time I see this happening is back in 1965, when Julie Christie starred in both Darling and Doctor Zhivago. Yul Brynner did it as well back in 1956 when he starred in The King and I and The Ten Commandments. (The latter is led by Charlton Heston but Brynner is second-billed and certainly the most significant other role–not counting G-d–so it's a legitimate claim.) Greer Garson did it in 1942 when she starred in Mrs. Miniver and Random Harvest. Walter Pidgeon did it in 1941 when he starred in How Green Was My Valley and Blossoms in the Dust. Bette Davis did it in 1941 when she starred in All This, And Heaven Too and The Letter. Spencer Tracy did it in 1938 when he starred in Boys Town and Test Pilot. Paul Muni did it in 1937 when he starred in The Life of Emile Zola and The Good Earth. William Powell and Myrna Loy starred in both The Great Ziegfeld and Libeled Lady in 1936. In 1935, Olivia de Havilland starred in both Captain Blood and A Midsummer Night's Dream. But Charles Laughton starred in THREE Best Picture nominees: Mutiny on the Bounty, Les Miserablés and Ruggles of Red Gap! In 1934 Loretta Young starred in The House of Rothschild and The White Parade. But Claudette Colbert starred in THREE Best Picture nominees: It Happened One Night, Cleopatra and Imitation of Life. In 1931/1932, Wallace Beery starred in The Champ and Grand Hotel. For all of them, it's an impressive feat, even though most of those took place when ten movies were nominated, rather than five. Will that give Chalamet an edge? I don't think it's been discussed much but clearly people must be aware of it, so it certainly can't hurt. By the way, Julie Christie was nominated for her performance in Darling...and won. Yul Brynner was nominated for his performance in The King and I...and won. Greer Garson was nominated for Mrs. Miniver...and won. Bette Davis was nominated for The Letter...and lost to Ginger Rogers for Kitty Foyle. Spencer Tracy was nominated for Boys Town...and won. (Walter Pidgeon wasn't nominated.) Paul Muni was nominated for The Life of Emile Zola...and lost to Spencer Tracy for Captain's Courageous. William Powell was nominated for a third film, My Man Godfrey...and lost to Paul Muni for The Story of Louis Pasteur. (Myrna Loy was not nominated.) Charles Laughton was nominated for Mutiny on the Bounty...and lost to Victor McLaglen for The Informer. Claudette Colbert was nominated for It Happened One Night...and won. Wallace Beery was nominated for The Champ...and won (in a tie with Frederick March).