Guns N Roses Album "Chinese Democracy" Out March 6

Really. As Axl Rose says, this is the first time he's given an actual release date, so you should take it seriously. But what I love is that after a decade of waiting and countless false starts, the March 6 release date is "tentative." Tentative? Believe me, anything involving Guns N Roses is tentative at this point. But if he was going to announce a release date, couldn't Axl at least have waited until he had a day he thought was "firm?" Ah well. I'll believe it when I see it.

Weekend Box Office Preview -- Will Smith Triumph?

Box Office Prophets predicts "Charlotte's Web" will win the box office crown this weekend with $22 million, followed by "Eragon" at $17 million and Will Smith's "The Pursuit of Happyness" at $15 million. They're crazy. Will Smith is a huge star with a huge reservoir of good will from the public. Plus, black audiences traditionally are heavy moviegoers on opening weekend, the movie got by far the best reviews of the three, Smith got a Golden Globe nomination, he's been on every talk show in sight and it's good. Word of mouth is going to be terrific for what I believe will be the family film of the year (you can certainly take younger kids despite one bad curse word and a painful separation by two parents). And of course the movie's good enough to bring in adults who don't have kids in tow. "Charlotte's Web" is rated G and is getting very mixed reviews while "Eragon" is getting slaughtered. Since he became a superstar with "Independence Day," only "Ali" and "The Legend Of Bagger Vance" opened in the $10 million to $15 million range and Smith's last five movies have opened to $40 million+. This isn't that kind of movie (a big action film, etc.) but it is broadly appealing. It's gonna win the box office this weekend and have terrific legs.

Do All These Awards Mean Anything For Oscar?

The Hollywood Reporter's Martin Grove does a good job of pinpointing why all these critics' awards and the Golden Globes and so on are NOT reliable precictors of Oscar success. But what they are good at predicting is success at getting Oscar nominations, I think. One mistake in his piece: Grove says Clint Eastwood's "Letters From Iwo Jima" was "shut out" at the Globes when it didn't get a Best Drama nomination and thus lost momentum. Actually, as a foreign language film, "Letters" wasn't eligible for the Best Drama slot. It was eligible for Best Foreign Film, a nomination it received and is probably the front-runner to win since he's the only nominee in that category to get a director's nomination as well (two, in fact).

"Tarzan," "Doubt" and "Nancy Drew" In Development

I'll never understand why Disney didn't do a bigscreen sequel to its animated "Tarzan," one of their best films of the last 20 years. Well, Warner Bros. is taking another stab at a live action franchise, with Guillermo Del Toro (whose "Pan's Labyrinth" is one of the best movies of the year) attached to direct. John Patrick Shanley is going to write and direct a feature version of his marvelous play "Doubt." That's going to be tricky to adapt. And who knew they were making a new Nancy Drew movie? Emma Roberts -- neice to Julia -- stars in a new version coming out next summer. Will they work? Here's what to look for. On "Doubt," they say simply that no stars are attached, but frankly it's unthinkable without Cherry Jones in the lead. If she doesn't get the part, they're definitely off the rails. And "Tarzan" and "Nancy Drew" will be a lot more promising if they're period pieces.
NOTE: Just saw (most of) the "Nancy Drew" trailer. It's contemporary and doesn't look promising.

Where Are TV's Megahits?

In a decent column listing the types of programming networks should pursue (family sitcoms, period shows, miniseries, variety shows), USA Today's Robert Bianco bemoans the fact that there are no massively poular hits like "The Cosby Show, "M*A*S*H," "Roseanne" and "Ed Sullivan." And he suggests that maybe there never will be again. Uh, except for "American Idol," "CSI," and "Desperate Housewives," to name three recent examples. There was also "Seinfeld" and "ER" and "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" and "Survivor." In fact, every few years, a new show explodes on TV. They will again. Even if the 30 million people who watch "Idol" isn't quite as big as the millions who watched "MASH" or some other hit from an era when there were only three channels, it's still a broad popular hit. Everyone said the sitcom was dead till "The Cosby Show" came along. Then everyone said only "Law & Order" could work and serialized dramas were dead forever -- until "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives" exploded. Game shows were nonexistent in primetime for DECADES until "Millionaire" hit. Now gameshows are all over TV. Variety shows were dead for decades and while "Idol" serves that purpose, a real variety show will be a massive hit someday soon. Every genre that has ever worked on TV will work again someday. And massive hits are a constant -- they're never going to stop coming. You just don't know where or when they're going to come from. That's the fun part.

Mel Gibson: What's The Big Fuss?

Mel Gibson clearly has a martyr complex. He thinks "Apocalypto" is being grossly mischaracterized as some sort of violence porn film, he thinks people who can't handle him should be the ones to leave Hollywood -- not him, and would anyone else be pilloried for months over a drunk driving incident and a few ill-chosen words? Nope. USA Today has a chat with man.

"I'm doing well," he says. "But how many people do you know get a DUI and are kicked around for six months? It's out of proportion. I'm not saying I wasn't at fault. Hey, we're not perfect, we're all human, get over it. I've apologized, done the right thing, now get the hell over it. I'm a work in progress."

Really, haven't we all exploded into ugly bigotry at some point or another? Forgive and forget. Gibson is reasonable about the success of "Apocalypto," saying it was lucky to hit #1 during a soft week. And since he's coddled on "The Tonight Show" and cheered by adoring fans, it's probably no surprise he thinks the media should stop focusing on the negative stuff. It's old news, mate. Move on.

TV Pushing Religion To Margins

A new study says positive portrayals of religion are fading in primetime. Some ntoable exceptions that spring to mind: the Christian star of "Studio 60 On The Sunset Strip" who deals with idiots and insults (which this study might classify as negative) which she endures with dignity and self-respect and a refusal to back down (which I would say makes it more positive). Another big exception: "Friday Night Lights." The religious life of the characters took a backseat for a few weeks, but it came back this week. Smash is attracted to the daughter of a pastor back in town and he is often seen at Church where the congregation raises money to help his studies and prays for his success. Also, the cheerleader who cheated on her crippled boyfriend told her parents she was unfaithful and her mother comforted her by saying that sin entered the world so we could feel God's mercy. A subtle moment, but certainly a positive one that makes clear the importance of faith to them. "FNL" remains a terrifically entertaining, well-acted drama.

By the way, the exception to this trend is reality TV, where the study points out that the faiths of people involved in "The Amazing race," "American Idol," and various game shows are presented regularly and without condescension. Of course, those same reality shows also reflect the lives of gay people in the same positive light, so people on the far right might think it's a zero sum game.

Uh-Oh, Another Honorary Oscar

Ennio Morricone was a terrific choice to get an honorary Oscar and a tribute to him could be very entertaining. But I think the Academy Awards should limit itself to ONE onscreen tribute per year. Hearing two (and often three) lengthy celebrations of people diminishes the honor to all of them and brings the show to a dead halt, especially when most of the awards are for behind the scenes folk most viewers have never heard of and don't care about. Case in point: Sherry Lansing. She's getting an honorary Oscar for her humanitarian work. Wonderful. God bless her. Let her stand up briefly and receive some applaus as an intro to the Ennio Morricone tribute. If we have to hear a lengthy rundown of charity work and then get a boring speech from Lansing, it'll contribute to the snoozefest that is Oscar. No one producing the Oscars has free rein, but if I did I could improve the darn thing mightily and do a better job of showcasing movies. Eliminating all but one honorary Oscar to the broadcast would be one of my first steps. They can give out ten a year for all I care, just don;t clutter up my awards show with 'em.

Opera Diva Quits, Then Demands To Come Back

This soap opera at La Scala has been going on for days. A new mounting of Aida got okay reviews and warm applause opening night. But singer Roberto Alagna was singled out as being weak and on the second night he got booed (opera fans are notoriously tough) and then stormily walked offstage in the middle of a performance. To his shock, La Scala is keeping the understudy in the role and refusing to let Alagna perform, insisting quite reasonably that when he walked off stage in the middle of a show he quit. Alagna won't hear of it. Now he's singing OUTSIDE La Scala before performances and taking pictures of himself, bemoaning the cruel way he's been treated and threatening to sue. No wonder opera fans are so passionate: even when they're bad, opera singers are still entertaining.

Overnight TV Ratings -- "30 Rock" Crumbling

Lots of repeats, so I'm not gonna list all the shows. Go to MediaWeek's Marc Berman for a complete ratings breakdown. Opposite repeats of "CSI" and "Grey's Anatomy," a new episode of "Scrubs" did so-so and a new episode of "30 Rock" couldn't hold on to that audience. It doesn't get any easier than this: a compatible lead-in and repeats on most of the other networks. "30 Rock" is in trouble. I tried to watch "The OC," but when it turned out to be a fantasy alternate universe Chrismukkah episode, I lost interest. And "Survivor" is doing well, but it's a far cry from the heydays of this reality show.

Terminally Ill Get Own Reality Series

At least they will if my brother gets his way. This is his latest idea for a reality series: "OK, so you don't like the serial killer idea. [Trust me. You don't want to know -- MG] How 'bout this one? Take someone who's terminally ill. Not anything gross and make them good looking. They need to be able to get around. Just have to die within a specified period of time. Give them a great place and a bunch of money. No other rules. Follow them around and see how they spend their time. They'd have to be single so we can watch hookers and stuff."

This of course isn't even a stretch. I'd be surprised if it isn't already in development. You might do something more inspiring like follow Make-A-Wish as they deliver people's fantasies. But letting someone loose with oodles of cash and only a short time to live -- sadly, it could work.

Tracy Chapman Dated Alice Walker?

I don't think the musician Tracy Chapman is even officially out, but the Guardian writes about her relationship with Alice Walker (who speaks about it openly) as if it were common knowledge. I love that teh Guardian describes some of Walker's ideas (like a moratorium on ANYONE having a baby until certain crucial world issues are resolved) and then says she also has some REALLY wacky ideas. Wackier than that? Walker and I would NOT get along, I fear.

"Law & Order: SVU" Possibly To End?

Roger Friedman of FoxNews.com says NBC is playing hardball with the stars of "Law & Order: SVU" and seems more than willing to end the run of one of its few hit shows. Usually it's Dick Wolf who is willing to dismiss stars and have them replaced, but this time it's NBC. The network is so desperate, however, I can't see them letting it go. Even if the strs walk, NBC will just get Wolf to replace them eith newer and cheaper names. Friedman also has a nice, unvarnished but loving look at the death of Ahmet Ertegun of Atlantic Records, reminding us that Atlantic shortchanged many R&B stars on royalties but keeping the music and his massive contributions front and center.

Keep Surfing!

Americans are doing more of most everything per a new study: we're watching more TV, surfing the net more, playing more video games and listening to more radio (that's surprising to me). Book reading is just about steady, but magazine and newspaper reading is down (if you only count physical newspapers and not reading them online). So I'll keep posting if you keep reading and commenting. Who needs to sleep?

"Xanadu" Is Coming To Broadway

Yes, THAT "Xanadu," the crazy disco fantasy from 1980 starring Olivia Newton-John and Gene Kelly with songs by ELO. Douglas Carter Beane (enjoying a modest success with "The Little Dog Laughed") wrote the book. Doesn't this sound like some silly Off Broadway idea -- a la the version of "Road House" I saw a few years ago? And of course there was "Xana Don't," a gay musical set in a high school where everyone was gay and the straight kids had to stay in the closet or be mocked. Since the movie climaxes with the Greek muse (Newton-John) inspiring the building of a disco roller rink (of course), we're sure to see more rollerskating on Broadway than anytime since "Starlight Express." One way or another, it's gonna be fun.

CBS Records Is Reborn

I fondly remember CBS Records, a mainstay of my collection back when I was buying cassettes and all of CBS's albums came with the artist and album title printed on the spine in red letters. That label -- whch featured Dylan and Springsteen -- was sold to Sony for about $2 billion many years ago. Now CBS is launching CBS Records again. (It was dumb of Sony not to keep the rights to that name or insist CBS never use it.) Why? Cause they can cross-promote the hell out of anything via their TV shows and movies and they think digital sales make it easy to get back into business. We'll see. If they bring in music people who just want to sign great acts, it'll work. If it's just a big pile of synergy (hey, we need a song for "Ghost Whisperer," ask the music people if they've got something ballad-y"), it won't.

Go-Go Boy Offended By Being Labeled A Porn Star

Hey, a guy's gotta have standards. A go-go boy at the gay dance club Splash is rightly furious the club portrayed him as an adult film star in advertisements. Now he's suing for more than $1 million. It reminds me of that line in "Showgirls" where someone calls our heroine a stripper and she angrily replies, "I'm a dancer!" There's a difference. Despite references in the article to beefcake shots the go-go boy posed for, asotnishingly enough there are no photos included with the article. That took restraint.

Movie Review Roundup

Lots of movies out today, with most everyone thinking "Eragon" is weak. The NYTimes criticizes "Dreamgirls" for the one thing I have no complaint about: its songs. No, it's not classic Motown and its roots are clearly Broadway. But "Move," "Fake your Way To The Top," "I Am Changing," "Listen," "Dreamgirls" and of course "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going" -- that's one terrific, catchy song after another. "Dreamgirls" on a first viewing lacked some emotional punch for me. But it's glossy and fun and the songs are the one element that definitely won't let you down. The LA Times gives it an out and out rave. "The Good German" is a pastiche, but fun for film buffs, I think, with Cate Blanchett channeling Marlene Dietrich and worth admission on her own. Manohla Dargis has the best line: "They don't make them like they used to, even when they try." As for "Charlotte's Web," even the friendly reviews make clear this is no "Babe." AO Scott of the NYT is especially confusing when he writes, "On the one hand, it’s hard to ruin such fine material. On the other hand, even the smallest misjudgment might feel like a desecration." Uh, that makes no sense. The surprise of the week for me is"The Pursuit of Happyness." Will Smith is an appealing actor, but his taste in material has been very shaky over the years. But I found this film unexpectedly good. Manohla Dargis makes a crazy assertion worthy of the Village Voice. She says that this film's very specific story of one man implies "the idea that poverty is a function of bad luck and bad choices, and success the result of heroic toil and dreams." That's a sad twisting of the film's story. Poverty CAN be a function of bad luck and people CAN succeed thanks to heroic toil and dreams. To imply that the film's message is that anyone who is stuck in poverty is therefore stupid or responsible for their own fate or unwilling to work hard is offensive. It's just as negative and vile to tell anyone in poverty you're a victim and there's nothing you can do about it, isn't it? I'm really looking forward to seeing the film again to see what my reaction is a second time. It might just make my best of the year list. In any case, it's a good family film.

New Arcade Fire Song! Call Now!

In a nifty bit of oddness, Arcade Fire are sneaking a listen to their new song "Intervention" not by the Internet or a ringtone or MySpace but by phone. Call 866-636-6242 ext 7777 and you can hear a rather muddy, distant playing of "Intervention," complete with children's choir and anthemic finale. The album "Neon Bible" is coming out in March or April.

What Would You Bid For Kirk's Phaser?

A Star Trek auction begins today on EBay and at Its-a-wrap-Hollywood stores in California. Items for sale include a Klingon Bat-leth sword (come on, doesn't everyone already have one of those?), uniforms worn by Kirk et al and a Borg Alcove complete with actual Borg. It's futile to resist. Make sure your wallet is full: the Lion's costume from "The Wizard of Oz" went for $700,000 recently.

Criterion releasing $15 DVD Line

In a long-overdue step, Criterion is going to launch a new line of DVDs called Eclipse. Featuring works like the early films of Bergman and dcoumentaries by Louis Malle, they'll be clean prints with no extras to speak of at a very affordable price of $15. It's pretty simple: Criterion is already tackling as many of its top-notch, high-end full restorations of classic films bursting with extras. (Not to mention re-resdtoring films like "Seven Samurai" when they can do a significantly better job the second time around.) Also, there's almost an endless stream of movies that deserve to be available on DVD but couldn't work as deluxe editions. Hence, Eclipse, which might fill in gaps on Mizoguchi, Ozu, the 1935 Les Miserables and so on. Thanks to George Robinson of IRA (he of the acclaimed Essential Torah) for the tip on this.

Happy Birthday, Adam Brody

A talented actor, he's shown good taste in feature films by picking small roles in flicks like "Mr. and Mrs. Smith" and "Thank Yuo For Smoking" while waiting for the right lead role a la Topher Grace (another talent who I think will have a long film career). Adam is 27 today.

Music Legend Ahmet Ertegun Is Dead

The co-founder of Atlantic Records, Ahmet Ertegun died Thursday. Fittingly, he died from injuries suffered when he fell down backstage at the Rolling Stones concert in the Beacon Theatre. Ertegun wooed the Stones to Atlantic many years ago. His career stretched from Joe Turner's "Shake, Rattle & Roll" to virtually the present and Ertegun's most significant artists include giants like Aretha Franklin and Ray Charles. I never met or interviewed the man, but my CD collection is filled to bursting with his work, such as Bobby darin and Sonny & Cher and Bette Midler and ABBA and Genesis and Foreigner and many many more. Here's the NYTimes obit, one from Billboard, one from Rolling Stone, one from Hollywood Reporter and good ole Wikipedia.

13 Year Old Author Publishes First Fantasy Novel

God, I am SO lazy. Now 13 year olds are lapping me career-wise. All I can say to console myself is "Grandma Moses, Gradma Moses, Grandma Moses...." Take that, Nancy Yi Fan!

Globe Nominee Reactions: Borat In Iran

The Hollywood Reporter gives a rundown of reactions from all the nominees. Sacha Baron Cohen is the funniest: "I have been trying to let Borat know this great news but for the last four hours both of Kazakhstan's telephones have been engaged. Eventually, Premier Nazarbayev answered and said he would pass on the message as soon as Borat returned from Iran, where he is guest of honor at the Holocaust Denial Conference." And Jennifer Hudson gives the smartest, most politic response in an attempt to soothe the hurt feelings of Jennifer Holliday: "I just hope the original Dreamgirls are pleased [by these Globe nominations]: this is a tribute to them. I'd love to meet Jennifer Holliday." Here's Variety's similar story.

"The Odd Couple" Season One On DVD

We can all name favorite shows we're waiting to see released on DVD ("thirtysomething" and "I'll Fly Away" and "The Wonder Years" spring to mind for me). But certainly one of the most in-demand titles is "The Odd Couple." The set will be "officially" released on February 6th but you can buy it right now at TimeLife.com. For me, it's a great second-tier comedy along with "Family Ties," "NewsRadio," and so on. But I have many friends who would spit fire over that comment and insist it is one of the best of all time. I'm looking forward to finding out if they're right.

Rolling Stone Top Albums Of The Year

I had to stroll way down the list to find some new CDs I need to check out. And no Corinne Bailey Rae or James Hunter? Sad. The top 10:

1. Bob Dylan -- Modern Times
2. Red Hot Chili Peppers -- Stadium Arcadium
3. Sonic Youth -- Rather Ripped
4. TV On The Radio -- Return To Cookie Mountain
5. Ghostface Killah -- Fishscale
6. Cat Power -- The Greatest
7. Clipse -- Hell Hath No Fury
8. The Hold Steady -- Boys and Girls In America
9. Mastadon -- Blood Mountain
10. Tom Waits -- Orphans: Brawlers, Bawlers and Bastards

Madonna -- Still A Huge Draw In Concert

Madonna's current album may be a disappointment commercially. ("Confessions On A Dance Floor" has only gone platinum in the US and should have enjoyed a clutch of hit singles, but didn't.) But don't write her off. Madonna was the second highest grossing tour act of the year, right behind the Rolling Stones, who are in the midst of the most profitable tour of all time. When she can gross almost $200 million by hitting the road (and I don't believe that figure includes merchandising), you know Madonna is doing just fine. The Top 10 tours of the year per Billboard:

1. Rolling Stones -- $437 million
2. Madonna -- $195 million
3. Bon Jovi -- $131 million
4. U2 -- $96 million
5. Tim McGraw/Faith Hill -- $88.8 million
6. Cirque Du Soleil Delirium -- $78.5 million
7. Barbra Streisand -- $76 million
8. Kenny Chesney -- $66 million
9. Dave Matthews Band -- $58 million
10. Aerosmith (many dates paired w Motley Crue) -- $58 million

"Girls Gone Wild" Creator Sentenced To Community Service

That seems like a fair tradeoff: three years of community service in exchange for millions of dollars and a sleasy life. I must admit, I don't feel much sympathy for the idiots who get trashed during Sring Break and then flash their breasts for the cameras. Being so drunk you didn't realize what you were doing is hardly a good argument in my book. The underage women involved -- well, he was breaking the law but they still behaved like fools. But of course the guys who expose themselves for "Boys Gone Wild," well, that's fine in my book.

Overnight TV Ratings -- "Day Break" Fading Fast

The overwrought, silly serialized drama "Day Break" -- which I warned you away from -- is fading fast in the ratings, barely able to hold onto any audience from its game show lead-in "Show Me The Money." (The creators will console themselves with the idea that "Day Break" was incompatible with the Williams Shatner fluff. The truth is it wouldn't have worked anywhere on TV.) "Lost" has already fled to 10 p.m. to get away from "American Idol" and "Criminal Minds" (which will be great counterprogramming once "Idol" returns). But having "Day Break" drive people away during the "Lost" hiatus can only hurt that show, not to mention its later timeslot hurting the show's appeal as one of the few families might watch together. "Lost" is already down this season, but I can't help thinking all of this is going to hurt it even more. Go to MediaWeek's Marc Berman for the complete ratings breakdown:

8 p.m.
1. The Biggest Loser season finale (NBC) -- 11.71 million viewers
2. The King Of Queens back to back episodes (CBS) -- 9.1 million
3. Bones (FOX) -- 8.62 million
4. Show Me The Money (ABC) -- 6.4 million
5. America's Next Top Model British series recap (CW) -- 2.1 million

9 p.m.
1. Criminal Minds (CBS) -- 16.17 million
2. The Biggest Loser season finale (NBC) -- 11.71 million viewers
3. Bones r (FOX) -- 6.11 million
4. Day Break (ABC) -- 3.9 million
5. America's Next Top Model British series recap (CW) -- 2.1 million

10 p.m.
1. CSI: NY (CBS) -- 15.6 million
2. Medium (CBS) -- 9.92 million
3. Primetime Live (ABC) -- 4.36 million