Sunday, May 07, 2006

"M:I:III" Takes In $45 Mil! Tom Cruise's Career Is Over!!

Tom Cruise's new movie "M:I:III" took in $45 mil over the weekend, far lower than his last film "War Of The Worlds" and less than "Mission: Impossible II." (Women in particular were always a strength of Cruise and seemed less interested in this film.) Pundits will immediately scream that America has rejected Cruise because of his crazy antics. America think he's "weird." Actually, America thinks ALL Hollywood stars are weird but they go to their movies anyway. Remember one thing: in general, sequels make less money. Let's look at the facts. First, "War Of The Worlds" was Cruise's biggest hit worldwide ever. So yes, compare his new movie to his biggest hit ever and it might seem to fall short. Second, "M:I:III" is the second sequel in a franchise and historically sequels tend to drop off from the blockbuster that launched the franchise. (For every exception, there are TEN examples that bear this out.) So it will be quite natural if "M:I:III" makes less than "M:I:I" or "M:I:II" because that's what sequels do: they cost more and make less. Finally, let's wait a week and see if the movie has legs. It got okay reviews (par for the course for this franchise) and the audience I saw it with applauded at the end. If it collapses and makes less than $100 million, okay -- people rejected it. That's not gonna happen. "M:I" opened to $45 mil (sound familiar?) and made $186 mil US. "M:I:II" opened to $57 mil and made $215 in the US. If "M:I:III" makes $120 to $150 mil, that would fit the classic case of a sequel making 60% of the movie that came before it. Plus, Cruise is bigger than ever worldwide and they know and care even less about his private life. It will easily make $300 mil worldwide (not counting another $300 mil for DVD, TV sales, pay-per-view, etc.) and if that's a failure, Cruise and Hollywood will take it every day.

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