WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE FOR WEEK ENDING DECEMBER 29, 2024
A film's gross for the last seven days, followed by its total worldwide gross. I begin with data from
Comscore and then pull from every other source available.
1. Mufasa: The Lion King–$206m / $328m worldwide
2. Sonic The Hedgehog 3–$150m /$212m ww
3. Moana 2–$93m / $883m
4. Wicked–$63m / $634m ww
5. Nosferatu–$43m ww debut
6. Pushpa 2: The Rule–$33m / $209m ww
7. Big World–$29m ww debut
8. A Complete Unknown–$23m ww debut
9. Octopus With Broken Arms aka Wu Sha 3 (Manslaughter 3)–$22m ww
10. Gladiator II–$19m / $435m ww
11. Harbin–$15m ww debut
12. Kraven The Hunter–$10m / $53m ww
13. The Prosecutor–$10m / $28m ww
14. Homestead–$7m / $13m ww
15. Babygirl–$7m ww debut
16. Detective Conan: Crossroad in the Ancient Capitol (2003)–$5m / $37m ww
17. Honey Money Phony–$5m (in previews)
18. The Fire Inside–$4m ww debut
19. Her Story aka Hao Dong Xi--$3m / $99m ww
20. Conclave–$3m / $53m ww
21. The Firefighters–$3m / $20m ww
22. Red One–$2m / $183m ww
23. Paddington in Peru–$2m / $49m ww
24. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever–$1m / $40m ww
25. The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim–$1m / $16m ww
26. I Am What I Am 2–$1m / $9m ww
27. Santosh–$1m ww debut
NOTE: The Last Dance–This film made $10m last week but I can't find any updated info on it yet for the week ending Dec 29.
Bold: movies that have or likely will triple their reported budgets. That's my standard for a movie being a box office hit from theatrical alone. Many films will be profitable for a studio even if they don't triple their reported budget, but it's a good marker to indicate a big hit.
ANALYSIS
The big news this week is that after a slow-seeming start, Mufasa: The Lion King is finding an audience and going toe to toe (or paw to paw) with Sonic The Hedgehog 3. It's more proof that movies rarely compete with each other, for a lot of films are proving box office successes. Go and see Sonic and if you have fun, you're more likely to go again soon to see Moana 2 or Mufasa. Maybe you're older and saw Wicked and there was a trailer for Nosferatu and so just a few weeks after seeing one movie, you go see another. (Anyone seeing three or four movies in a theater in a year counts as a top-tier movie-goer, by the way.)
I'm still holding off on calling Mufasa a winner from box office alone. One analyst said the folks at Disney didn't really expect it to gross $1 billion like the animated and "live action-ish" animated remake. Oh really? Well, they spent at least $200mb making it and oodles of money marketing it, so they surely expect it to make $600m-$800m. At least!
Also, Pushpa 2: The Rule is a massive hit. But I still don't believe it tripled its grosses over last week to make another $33m. Is it literally the only movie anyone in India wanted to see? I mean, I know darn well Christmas isn't a big movie-going day in India, so what gives? Putting an asterisk on that one.
But put all that aside. I want to talk about windows: that's the amount of time a movie spends in theaters before heading to streaming. The studios seem to have learned their lesson about releasing movies in theaters being an all around good thing. But they're being very, very stupid when it comes to how soon they push a film onto streaming. They've got one answer to everything. If a movie is a flop, rush it to streaming. If a movie is a hit, rush it to streaming. If a movie is geared towards older audiences, who take time to discover a movie in the theaters? Rush it to streaming. If a movie is the highest grossing musical of all time and still grossing more than $40m a week and it will be a likely Oscar contender, with all the attendant hype and possibility for sing-along screenings for the next three months? Rush it to streaming.
Arrrrggghhhhhh.
The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim only cost $30m. And in fact, the people with the film rights to LOTR must make a new movie every certain number of years or those rights are lost (to the Tolkien estate, I assume, but don't quote me). Hence, the very smart movie of making an anime action film out of an obscure battle taking place well before the saga of Bilbo and Frodo. Sadly, the movie was panned by critics and ignored by audiences. It opened around the world starting Dec. 4 and in North America on Dec. 13. Just 17 days later it's almost dead in the water and shedding screens (this weekend in the US it lost 1,400 alone). It's precisely the sort of film that should jump quickly to streaming. Theaters don't want to show it anymore so why object? The marketing for the film has it uppermost in minds so when people see it on streaming, they might be more inclined to check it out. Great! (Mind you, I think the same would be true two months from now, but that's me.)
But Wicked? WICKED??!! It's still grossing a ton of money worldwide ($46m this week) and can surely expect lots of Oscar nominations on January 17. It's a big, big movie that deserves to be seen on the big screen. They can have sing-along screenings. (And no, it's not cool to sing-along unless you're at a sing-along screening.) And yet they are rushing it onto streaming just 40 days after it hit theaters. That's madness. If anything, I would keep Wicked off of streaming FOR A YEAR. Rerelease it in theaters right before Wicked: For Good comes out in November of 2025. Maybe the dog days of August? Then cash in on the new film and then run them as a double feature. The only place people could get the Wicked experience would be to head to Broadway or their local movie theater. And then, long after the movie squeezed out every penny it could–and only then–would I release it to streaming. Do you really think people would have forgotten about it? Do you really think they wouldn't care anymore? Please. At the very least, I would not put the first Wicked onto streaming until say a week before the Oscars.
And how is the box office treating Hollywood? Studios released 25% fewer wide releases than they did on average between 2016-2019. They released substantially fewer movies than in 2023, all due to the multiple strikes and COVID lockdown. Nonetheless, big hits like Barbie and Oppenheimer and Deadpool and Wolverine made clear audiences are definitely eager to go back to the movies. So did all the cheap horror flicks, indie successes like Conclave and more. The only thing holding back box office grosses were the lack of movies. Release enough movies of every sort (big budget, medium, small) and people will show up.
Given all that–25% fewer movies and a poor balance of types of movie–it was reasonable to expect we'd hit $8b to $8.3b, all things being equal. Instead, movies scored BIG and it looks like we'll end at maybe $8.7b for the year in North America. If they get wide releases back up to the usual level in 2025, we have every reason to expect box office will surge back to $10b to $11b, just like before lockdown. That is, IF they don't screw over exhibitors by rushing everything onto streaming and cutting off success at the knees. Doing that would be wicked and hurt moviegoing for good.
P.S. Some argue that the big box office came about only because people paid a lot more per ticket. Attendance was just 800m for the year in North America. Twenty years ago you'd see ticket sales regularly hit 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion admissions (with a modern peak of 1.5b). I strongly oppose jacking up ticket prices and think anyone paying extra to watch a movie in IMAX if the film wasn't primarily shot in IMAX is a waste of money. BUT, with 25% fewer movies, it's reasonable to expect 25% fewer ticket sales. And 800m tickets is close to the 900m you might expect.) By the way, the average ticket price in 2002 (the year of peak sales) was $5.81. Adjusted for inflation that would be equal to $31.87 today, or the cost of an IMAX ticket and a fancy popcorn bucket. Just saying.
P.P.S. Average ticket prices and total admissions are bunk, by the way. To get the number of tickets sold, the MPAA just announces the "average" ticket price and then divides the total box office by that number. The actual number of matinee, kids prices, IMAX premium prices , senior discount and other tickets sold? Each theater chain keeps that info very private. It's very annoying.
NOTES
mb = a film's budget in millions of US dollars; ww = worldwide
1. Mufasa: The Lion King–$200mb
2. Sonic The Hedgehog 3–$120mb
3. Moana 2–Is the budget lower since it was intended for tv, at first? Or higher because they had to rethink everything? Disney says it cost $150mb, just like the original. You can bet Dwayne Johnson gets more than his share of coconuts, but that won't matter with a hit like this.
4. Wicked–$150mb for each part, so $300mb total plus beaucoup marketing. It's a big movie!
5. Nosferatu–$50mb for Robert Eggers, acclaimed director of The Witch, The Lighthouse and The Northman. That had his biggest budget and was not a commercial success. I saw him as more of an arthouse guy. But backers stuck with him, gave him a big budget and a starry cast for a remake of Nosferatu, which I guess is classier than remaking Dracula but still a hard sell I thought. And on Christmas Day? That's counter-programming I was not behind. Happily, I was wrong and Eggers looks more like the next Peter Jackson/Guillermo Del Toro than a guy given big budgets too fast or for the wrong projects. Good for him!
6. Pushpa 2: The Rule–$60mb. The original Indian/Telugu film cost half as much and only grossed $46m. So the sequel cost more than the original movie's gross. But it doubled the original's entire gross in its first week. Originally, a chunk of the two films were shot at the same time, but they did significant reshoots, so just 10% came from the first go-round. Yes, it was the highest grossing Indian movie of 2021; yes it's one of the highest grossing Telugu films of all time. But even the lowest estimate of the original's budget is $23mb, so it wasn't a huge hit to begin with. I am puzzled. Are the economics different for Indian films? I wouldn't be surprised if the calculations were different. There are no reports of the first film being a particular hit on streaming or on demand etc, which might justify all this. I think it's another example of Indian films committing to a sequel before there's any demand. Indeed, this film was cut into two parts before the first release. A number of other films seem to be two-parters, which is a very rare thing in Hollywood but less so in India. Is it a good idea? I don't think so. And having said all that, it's off to an excellent start. Why? It's no better reviewed than the first. Maybe they got lucky but Indian studios should rethink all these two and three-parters.
7. Big World–$29m ww debut. Chinese drama starring pop star and actor Jackson Yee as a young man living with cerebral palsy. Yee has gone from boyband TFBoys to having the Mandarin song of the year in 2017 to success in TV and film. How's his English, asks Hollywood?
8. A Complete Unknown–$60mb+ for this Bob Dylan biopic? That's a lot of money for a film about Dylan going electric at Newport. I mean, I want to see it but then I'm a Dylan fanatic. Off to a very good start and star Timotheé Chalamet is sure to get an Oscar nomination, so it should keep going.
9. Octopus With Broken Arms aka Wu Sha 3 (Manslaughter 3)–Chinese drama about businessman's daughter kidnapped from his home.
10. Gladiator II–$250mb for Ridley Scott sword and sandals epic. It needs $750m worldwide for me to call it a hit from theatrical alone but $600m would be just fine. It's got swords. It's got sandals. Does it have legs? No, it does not. This is the sort of film that everyone thinks of as a hit, but actually didn't deliver. The talk of Gladiator 3 is nonsense. Maybe many years from now they'll use the name to launch a new franchise, but this is the end for now.
11. Harbin–Comscore has this at $8m but the Korean box office shows it with $15m total. It opened Dec 24, so I assume the national chart is more accurate. Harbin is a South Korean historical drama set in the early 1900s about rebels fighting against the Japanese occupation of Korea. When one rebel leader shows mercy to Japanese prisoners and his men pay the price, he vows to redeem himself by assassinating the first Prime Minister of Japan. So this one will probably not have a good run in Japan.
12. Kraven The Hunter–$120mb. Ouch.
14. Homestead–faith-based post-apocalyptic drama from Angel Studios. A survivalist fantasy. Based on a series of ten, poorly reviewed novels.
15. Babygirl–$20mb for this Nicole Kidman sexy drama about a powerful businesswoman finding her kink with a younger, dominating man..her intern, no less! No milk was harmed in the making of this movie.
16. Detective Conan: Crossroad in the Ancient Capitol (2003)–China reissue of Japanese animated franchise entry. Film had $32m before reissue in China.
17. Honey Money Phony–Chinese rom-com about young woman suddenly burdened with debt who falls for a (very handsome) young con man. Will he go straight for her or teach her his wicked ways so she can get out from under this financial disaster?
18. The Fire Inside–$12mb for this indie drama about the true story of female Olympian boxer from Flint, Michigan. It's a stellar week for director Barry Jenkins, who wrote and produced this film and sees his family film Mufasa: The Lion King finding its audience.
19. Her Story aka Hao Dong Xi --Chinese drama, literally translated as "Nice One." Single mom moves in with another single gal; adventures ensue. I don't like calling film's hits without some reporting on its budget. But I can't imagine this type of film costing even $20m, so it's a hit!
20. Conclave–a reported $20mb for this Vatican thriller means they're likely to have a hit when all is said and done. It's at $50m and still going strong, with a boost from potential Oscar noms, assuming they don't rush it to streaming.
21. The Firefighters–Korean drama with hot young newbie joining firefighter squad, only to butt heads with a legendary veteran.
22. Red One–Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans action/Xmas comedy. A budget reportedly up to $250mb. It's a theatrical failure, but that failure would have been just as clear if it had gone straight to streaming. Now at least it is (almost) paying for a worldwide marketing blitz and that can only help. Remember how people rented crap movies at Blockbuster simply because they'd "heard" of it during the theatrical run? Same idea.
23. Paddington in Peru–$50mb? I'm just guessing. (That's sort of midpoint between the original and Paddington 2.) Sadly, three times is not the charm artistically for this once-perfect franchise.
24. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever–$10mb for this holiday faith-based film based on the gentle 1972 novel. It's a more religiousy A Christmas Story.
25. The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim–per Screendollar, the budget is $30mb for this animated prequel to The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings movies. Even at that price, it almost certainly won't be a theatrical hit. Taken solely from minor footnotes in the novels, it's a gamble but a smart one. An animated film won't be compared to Peter Jackson's masterpiece. (See: the TV series.) And it's not retelling stories we've already heard. (See: superhero movies that go back to the well by redoing an origin story for Superman, Spiderman, et al.) Unfortunately, you still have to be good. The trailer I saw disappointed and audiences are not responding. A pity.
26. I Am What I Am 2–Chinese animated film is a sequel to a 2021 animated action comedy. This time, a newcomer to Shanghai agrees to fight in a boxing/martial arts tournament to raise money for his ailing dad. It's a spiritual sequel to the first film, which was critically praised but only grossed $40m ww. In that film, a kid competes in a lion dancing competition while his ailing dad is in a coma.
27. Santosh–$2.5mb reported for this Indian/UK Hindi language drama about a widow who inherits her husband's job as a police inspector. The UK entry for the Academy Award for Best International Film.
THE CHART AND HOW IT IS COMPILED
This column is a week by week tracking of box office around the world. It is compiled by pulling from every possible source: ComScore, Box Office Mojo, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, charts for countries like China and India and South Korea, individual stories in trade or general interest newspapers, Wikipedia and anyone else discussing box office.
ComScore Weekly Global Box Office Chart
The weekly charts contain the total gross for every movie in theaters around the world during the last seven days. If a movie opens on a Thursday, we include all the box office from Thursday through Sunday. If it opens on a Tuesday night, we cover all six days. If it opens on a Sunday (as some movies do in India or wherever, depending on holidays), then we include the box office for that one day. If a movie was released before the current week, we include the box office for all seven days. Why ignore the box office from Monday through Thursday, as most charts do when tallying the latest weekend and focusing on new releases?
How do we arrive at this number? We take the total worldwide box office we have for a movie, subtract from it the previous week's total worldwide box office...and that's how much it made during the past seven days. Naturally, territories and movies sometimes fall through the cracks but we are as up to date as we can be, given our dependence on other outlets for the basic info.
First, I list box office on every film we can from around the world. Any movie grossing at least US $1 million will be on here if we get info on it. Then I give some thoughts on the box office overall and individual films. That's followed by notes where I give info on each movie, with a focus on films not from Hollywood. So Despicable Me 4 you know. But a small Korean comedy or French drama? That I'll identify for you as best I can.
What about when I blithely state a film has opened in TK% of the world? For example, I claim The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim opened in about 9% of the worldwide market. I long wanted to know how "wide" a movie has opened around the world. It's easy to know how wide a film opened in one country. In the US/Canada, a limited release might be two theaters or 20. A wide release used to mean 1000 theaters and now big movies easily open on 2000 or 3000 or even 4000 theaters. (We talk about theaters, not screens, since screen count can and does change daily or even hourly. A movie can play at one mulitplex and be on five screens or eight or one.) I really hated not knowing how many countries a movie had already opened in and how "big" those countries are in the worldwide market. So I got a list of the 20 top countries and how much of the worldwide box office they represented in 2019, the last typical year/ Those 20 countries accounted for 90% of the worldwide box office in 2019. For example, Australia was responsible for 2.13% of the $42.2 billion worldwide total in 2019. China was responsible for $22.04%. The 86 or so other countries outside the Top 20 represent well less than 1% and are equally weighted as representing just 0.116% of the total worldwide box office.
So, The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim opened in Spain (1.66%), Mexico (2.37%) and Brazil (also 1.66%) and 28 other countries (none major). The three big markets total 5.69% of the worldwide box office. (Roughly!) The other 28 countries (28 times 0.116%) account for 3.248%. So altogether the film has opened in 8.938% of the world, which I simplified as about 9%. This DOESN'T mean the film will make 90% more in other markets. A movie might open in China or Korea and do little or nothing anywhere else for various reason. Another movie might open in France and prove a worldwide smash. All this number is meant to indicate is how much of the world a movie has opened in already. If it's a big hit and might play elsewhere, it's good to know a film that's making headlines has only opened in 10% of the world.
If two big films like Moana 2 and Wicked are facing off, it's good to know if one of them still has big markets like Japan still to come. No, I haven't done all the math on those two yet. But Wicked still has Germany, South Korea and Japan ahead of it and they represent 12.3% of the worldwide box office; Moana 2 has already opened in them. I'm hoping to get a program that will do all this for me automatically. Stay tuned.
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