The Bold Predictions Of Tom O'Neil

I hate Oscar handicap stories that come out in the spring or summer or fall, long before many of the possible contenders have even been finished, much less seen by anyone. But at least if you're gonna do it, you should show a little gumption. Tom O'Neil of The LA Times makes bold predictions for what movies will contend, And what does he do? He names THIRTY movies that are likely or possible contenders for Best Picture and then names almost as many for Best Actor and Actress. Thirty. That's like me "singling out" 30 or so people running for President and then tentatively guessing that one of them (Hilary Clinton, John McCain, Al Gore, Condoleeza Rice, John Edwards, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Evan Bayh, Wesley Clark, Bill Frist, Joe Biden, Tom Ridge, George Pataki, Newt Gingrich, Mark Warner, Mark Sanford, John Kerry, Russ Feingold, General Zod, Jeb Bush, Chuck Hegal, Barack Obama, Rudy Guiliani, Tom Daschle, Christopher Dodd, Mike Gravel, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack, George Allen, Sam Frost, John Cox, Michael Charles Smith, Tom Tancredo, Howard Dean or whomever). Okay, maybe one of them WON'T be President but I sure wouldn't bet on it. And what have I proven? That I can list a bunch of names.

In the same way, O'Neil lists 30 movies he "thinks" are contenders for Best Picture. If one of the five nominees ISN'T on this list, he truly looks the fool.

BEST PICTURE
"All the King's Men"
"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"Bobby"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"The Good German"
"The Good Shepherd"
"The History Boys"
"The Holiday"
"Little Children"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Prestige"
"The Pursuit of Happyness"
"The Queen"

POSSIBLE
"Catch a Fire"
"Children of Men"
"The Departed"
"A Good Year"
"The Hoax"
"Home of the Brave"
"Last King of Scotland"
"The Last Kiss"
"Margaret"
"Nativity Story"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"The Painted Veil"
"Stranger Than Fiction"
"United 93"
"Volver"
"World Trade Center"

My out-on-a-ledge pick of the five nominees:

Bobby
Dreamgirls
Flags Of Our Fathers
Little Miss Sunshine
Volver