Sunday, January 14, 2007

Friday Box Office: "Stomp!"

So I batted .500 this weekend in box office predictions. I hoped "Dreamgirls" would beat "Night At The Museum" thanks to finally expanding from 852 screens to 1900. Instead, "Dreamgirls" basically remained even with the week before while "Night" almost doubled it in grosses. But I also predicted that "Stomp The Yard" would do far better than its estimated $9 million, because movies like that ALWAYS seem to exceed expectations. In fact I should have realized that "Stomp The Yard" would cut into the expansioon of "Dreamgirls." "Stomp" in fact more than DOUBLED its estimate and was the Number One movie at the box office with $19.8 million. (These are all estimates based on Friday numbers and don't include the potential grosses from the holiday on Monday.) So "Dreamgirls" added 1000 screens but didn't add any bounce to its gross. Of course, it didn't drop at the box office either, which is always good. I'd love to know how much of the gross came from those extra 1000 screens. We've learned that everything about 1200 is often windown dressing, even for the biggest movies. Surely that's even truer for a movie like "Dreamgirls," which surely plays better in big cities than in small towns. And what sort of experience did audiences have? Maybe it would have been better to hold tight on 852 screens, knowing that the people who saw it would be surrounded by a bigger crowd and therefor had more fun. You can gross the same amount of money, but if the audience is spread out among a lot more half empty screens, that's bad for your movie's long-term business. "Dreamgirls" maybe should have increased to a more modest 1200 and waited for the Oscar nominations. Here are the weekend estimates, per Box Office Prophets.


altmike said...

Oy Michael you are holding on to Dreamgirls like Effie was trying to hold on to Curtis. You loyal beast! Dreamgirls is for gay men and the women who love them. I will stick to my prediction of big box office disappointment....and no major Oscar nominations except supporting actress and hopefully supporting actor. If it happens to squeak out a best picture....and I don't think it most definitely, certainly will not win.

Michael in New York said...

Not fair! I've repeatedly pointed out the shortcomings of Dreamgirls at the box office (like its mid-week weakness after debuting so strongly on Christmas Day) and questioned the wisdom in this very post of expanding it right now. But for all my negative comments, the fact is that the movie has chugged along nicely to $65 million, with a solid shot at $100 mil with Oscar nom boosts to come. It's already grossed more than Rent ($30 mil), and Phantom of the Opera ($51 mil) and Moulin Rouge ($57 mil), thogh obviously Chicago's $175 mil is out of the question. That's damn impressive for a musical and a black-themed drama. What cna we bet on its Oscar hopes? I'm certain it will get noms for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Song, and probably Best Sup Actor and Best Director. It's already a solid box office success for the genre. But I;m not loyal. I want to see it a second time but I don't think it will make my best of the year list.